Untangling Chaos Theory
It's nice to feel in control. This is true whether you're driving or making a decision. The road and the world can be overwhelming. Control keeps us calm at the wheel, literally and metaphorically. However, control is fleeting. We have parents. We have bosses. We have leaders. We stub our toes. We spill hot soup on our laps. This piece isn't about power or accidents that strip us of our control. It's about chaos.
Chaos theory is the study of complex dynamic systems. A dynamic system is any set of elements that interact and change over time. These systems can have any level of complexity. An example of a simple dynamic system is the pendulum inside a grandfather clock.
Simple dynamic systems are not the focus of chaos theory. Chaos involves systems with enormous numbers of elements, in rich webs of connection and influence. These systems are so complex that we can't effectively predict how they will change over time. This is contrary to our pendulum. We know that it will swing uniformly until it eventually comes to rest.
The Butterfly Effect
The most famous explanation of chaos theory is 'the butterfly effect.' It proposes that the flap of a butterfly's wings in China can cause a hurricane in Mexico. How does this work? Small changes amplify over time. The butterfly's flap affects the air immediately around it. This effect then spreads throughout the atmosphere. A small disturbance has become a devastating natural disaster. Chaos theory handles this class of escalating chains of events. Wild outcomes can result from humble origins.
'Chaos' is used differently in this context than our everyday definition. We think of chaos as total lack of order. It is typically associated with rioting or revolution. Chaotic systems still behave in an orderly and controlled way. We call them chaotic because their complexity means that we can't predict which orderly and controlled way they'll evolve. This is because the complexity amplifies small changes over time. The butterfly flapping to the left or the right can have massive implications for the location of the resulting hurricane. We can't confidently predict the results.
Chaos in scientific contexts is defined as 'high sensitivity to initial conditions.' Our ability to predict a system's behaviour unravels because the initial conditions are too precise for us to nail down. Such chaotic behaviour is a more 'perceived chaos' versus absolute lack of order. We can't measure every air molecule around the butterfly. At least not practically.
The Forecast Calls For Chaos
You may be able to see the wrench that chaos throws into our control over the world. It removes our ability to predict the future. This is key for long term planning. Long term planning is key for stable societies. This becomes an issue when we examine how many chaotic systems we are involved in.
An obvious one is the weather. Our atmosphere is in constant flux. Its shifting pressure and precipitation systems cause the variety we see everyday. Why? Molecules. The energy of gas molecules sets the air temperature. As is often so when we discuss molecules, there are lots of them. Billions upon billions bumping into each other. They redirect along new paths. These paths lead to even more collisions. Imagining this gives us an idea of weather's complexity. The scope of it can also give you a headache. For meteorologists, this headache can spiral into a migraine.
The butterfly effect has shown us how small events can unpredictably become catastrophic. This problem equally disrupts normal weather forecasting. Chaos and its consequences plot against forecasters. Their predictions are highly dependent on the present state of the atmosphere. However, knowing the state of every molecule is impossible. Any inaccuracy in the initial prediction is amplified over time by chaos. This is why a 24-hour forecast is far more trustworthy than a 14-day one.
We all accept weather randomness as a given. Although, imagine if it were otherwise. To never have a picnic or beach day spoiled by rain. To have six months to prepare for a natural disaster, instead of six days. To not waste your time trying to view an eclipse on a cloudy day. Unfortunately, we must play the hand we've been dealt. Chaos is literally the reason for rain on our parades.
Many other dynamic systems that affect us are chaotic:
The global economy: deeply interconnected banks, traders, lenders, and spenders act. Economists cope with chaos
The solar system: the gravity of the sun and each planet affects each other's orbit. This is infamously known as the n-body problem
Our heartbeat: even a healthy heart undergoes chaotic fluctuations
The Positive Side Of Chaos Theory
How are we feeling about our grasp on that pesky control? Pretty anxious, I'd imagine. It's humbling and scary to discover that complexity so often evades understanding. This doesn't mean we have to focus on our inabilities. Luckily, most things don't revolve around forecasting dynamic systems. Thankfully, our geniuses are fighting on the front line of these battles. Nothing about the nature of chaos has proven devastating to our species. So we can recognize a beautiful silver lining.
On the other side of the unpredictability coin is spontaneity. Novel things are constantly happening to us. Our day are filled with surprise and uniqueness. If variety is the spice of life, then chaos is our variety engine. Our world is unfathomably complex, and produces life's 'spiciest' outcomes because of this. What else should we expect when replacing molecules with people, relationships, transactions, culture, and ideas.